SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 17
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(4) Purdue (21-3, 11-12-1 ATS) at (9) Ohio State (20-6, 13-13 ATS)
Two surging teams, both in contention for the Big Ten regular-season title, square off when the Buckeyes host Purdue at Value City Arena.
Ohio State has won six in a row (3-3 ATS) since falling at Big East power West Virginia on Jan. 23. The Buckeyes are coming off a pair of road routs, dumping Indiana 69-52 last Wednesday as a 10½-point favorite, then cooling off Illinois 72-53 Saturday as a two-point chalk. In fact, OSU has won its last five games by double digits, averaging 73.8 ppg on sterling 51.9 percent shooting, while allowing just 57.6 ppg on 41.9 percent shooting.
Purdue’s three losses came back-to-back-to-back from Jan. 9-16, but it has since notched seven consecutive wins (4-3 ATS), including a 63-40 defensive gem against Iowa on Saturday, cashing as a huge 19½-point home favorite. The Boilermakers held the Hawkeyes to just 29.8 percent shooting (14 of 47). Over the past five games, Purdue has outscored opponents by 12.4 ppg (68.6.-56.4), shooting 48.2 percent from the field and allowing just 36 percent shooting.
Ohio State dealt Purdue the second of its three losses, rallying for a 70-65 victory as a nine-point road pup in West Lafayette on Jan. 12 to cash for the third time in the last four series meetings. The Buckeyes have owned this rivalry lately, going 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 clashes, including 6-2-1 ATS in Columbus. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Buckeyes are on ATS surges of 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road record. Conversely, the Boilermakers are in ATS ruts of 4-12-1 following a spread-cover, 2-5 against winning teams and 16-36-2 in Wednesday outings.
The over is 8-3 in Ohio State’s last 11 games following an spread-cover and 6-0 at home against teams with a winning road record, and Purdue is on “over” runs of 5-0 on the highway and 21-6 in roadies against teams with a winning home mark. However, the under is 13-6 in Ohio State’s last 19 Big Ten starts and 5-2 in the Boilermakers’ last seven on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
(6) Duke (21-4, 16-8 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (17-8, 9-7-1 ATS)
The Blue Devils, in pursuit of their fifth consecutive win, head to South Beach for an ACC contest with Miami at the BankUnited Center.
Duke has won four in a row and six of its last seven (5-2 ATS), with all the victories coming in conference play, including Saturday’s 77-56 wipeout of Maryland as a 9½-point home chalk. Five of those six wins have come by double digits, and for the season, the Blue Devils are averaging 80.5 ppg (12th in the nation) while allowing 62.3 ppg. They also have one of the stingiest perimeter defenses, allowing opponents to make just 27.8 percent of their shots from beyond the three-point arc (fourth).
After a torrid 15-1 start, the Hurricanes have gone 2-7 SU in its last nine games (3-5-1 ATS). On Saturday, Miami went to Clemson and lost 74-66 but got the cash as a 9½-point pup. On the year, the ‘Canes have averaged 71.6 ppg, but it has scored 66 or less in its last four games and seven of its last nine. That said, six of those seven were on the road; at home, the Hurricanes average 75 ppg while allowing just 60.0.
The home team has won the last three meetings in this rivalry, with Miami going 2-0-1 ATS. Last February, Duke eked out a 78-75 overtime win, but the Hurricanes covered as a hefty 14-point underdog, and two years ago in Miami, the ‘Canes won a 96-95 shootout catching 6½ points. Miami is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings, all as a ‘dog, and the road team is also on a 3-1-1 ATS run.
The Blue Devils are on ATS upswings of 10-4 overall, 5-1 in the ACC, 4-1 on Wednesday and 10-4 against winning teams. The Hurricanes are on a modest 3-1-1 ATS run overall (all in the ACC and all against winning teams), but they are also on a 1-5-1 ATS skid following a pointspread win.
Both Duke and Miami have topped the total in six straight games against winning teams. However, the Blue Devils are on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 12-4 on Wednesday, 25-9 in conference play and 24-10 after a spread-cover. The under is also 7-3 in Miami’s last 10 home games and 5-0 in its last five after an ATS victory. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last six clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and OVER
(15) Texas (20-5, 9-12 ATS) at Missouri (18-7, 11-8 ATS)
Texas, aiming to regain some consistency, makes the trek to Columbia for a Big 12 battle with the Tigers at Mizzou Arena.
Since starting the season 17-0 and ascending to No. 1 in the country, the Longhorns have lost five of their last eight games and gone just 2-6 ATS in that stretch. On Saturday, though, they blasted Nebraska 91-51 as a 14-point home favorite to end a 1-3 SU and ATS skid. Rick Barnes’ troops are narrowly outscoring road opponents, averaging 77.4 ppg and giving up 75.1.
Missouri put together a nine-game winning streak to firm up its record by mid-January, but has since gone a middling 4-4 SU and ATS, all in Big 12 play. On Saturday at Baylor, the Tigers fell just short 64-62, but covered as a four-point pup. Mizzou is 15-1 at home this year, averaging a whopping 85.6 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting, while allowing just 61.7 ppg on 38.3 percent shooting.
Missouri has gone 2-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons against Texas, winning 69-65 last year as a 4½-point road ‘dog and 97-84 two years ago as a one-point home pup. Those two wins followed an 8-0 SU and ATS tear by the Longhorns, who are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 clashes overall and 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Columbia. The chalk has covered in five of the last seven in this rivalry.
The Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven starts following a spread-cover, but their pointspread streaks spiral downward from there, including 2-10 overall, 1-6 on the road, 0-7 after a SU win, 1-5 on Wednesday, 2-9 against winning teams and 6-19-1 in the Big 12. On the flip side, the Tigers are on ATS surges of 22-8 at home, 16-7 in the Big 12 and 4-0 after a SU loss, though they are in an 0-4 ATS funk following a spread-cover.
Texas is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 5-2 overall, 8-2 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win and 6-2 on the highway, but the under for the ‘Horns is on a 5-1-1 stretch against winning teams. The under for Mizzou is on upticks 5-1-1 against winning teams, 5-1 at home against teams with a winning road record and 9-4 in Big 12 competition, but the Tigers sport “over” streaks of 4-1 on Wednesday and 4-1 following a SU loss.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
NBA
Utah (33-19, 31-18-3 ATS) at New Orleans (28-25, 26-27 ATS)
The Hornets return to the court for the first time in a week when they entertain the red-hot Jazz in a Western Conference battle at New Orleans Arena.
Utah kicked off a four-game Western Conference road trip with Tuesday’s 104-95 win at Houston as a three-point road favorite. The Jazz are 15-3 in their last 18 games, going 13-2-3 ATS, and during this stretch they’re 5-2 on the road (6-0-1 ATS). Utah’s offense has been humming, as it has scored more than 100 points in 14 of its last 16 games, tallying 109 or more nine times.
New Orleans went into the All-Star break on a high note, rallying for a 93-85 win over the Celtics as a five-point home underdog, the team’s third straight spread cover. However, the Hornets – who continue to play without injured All-Star point guard Chris Paul, are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games, including 1-4 SU and ATS at home.
New Orleans ended a four-game SU and ATS losing streak to the Jazz with a 91-87 upset win as a 7½-point road favorite back on Jan. 4 in Salt Lake City (the only previous battle this season). Utah is still 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including consecutive wins and covers in its last two trips to the Big Easy.
Utah is on a slew of positive pointspread surges, including 13-2-3 overall, 7-0-1 on the highway, 10-2-2 as a favorite, 20-6-1 as a chalk of less than five points, 6-1 as a road chalk of five points or less, 10-2-2 against Western Conference foes, 37-17 against the Southwest Division, 16-5-3 versus winning teams, 4-1 on Wednesday and 4-1-1 when playing on back-to-back nights.
New Orleans has cashed in five of its last seven on Wednesday and 16 of its last 21 versus winning teams, but it is in pointspread slumps of 1-6 at home, 5-13 against Northwest Division squads and 0-5 when coming off three or more days of rest.
The Jazz are on “over” surges of 5-1 on the road, 4-1-1 as a road favorite, 8-4 against the Western Conference, 5-1 on Wednesday and 5-2 when playing on consecutive days. Similarly, New Orleans carries “over” streaks of 9-2 overall, 5-1 against the Western Conference, 4-1 on Wednesday and 6-1-1 after three or more days off. However, the Hornets have also stayed low in 27 of their last 40 home games and 10 of 13 against Northwest Division opponents.
Finally, the under is on a 6-2-1 roll in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
Phoenix (32-22, 29-25 ATS) at Dallas (32-21, 21-32 ATS)
The Mavericks, who have covered just one pointspread at home since Nov. 18, welcome the streaking Suns to American Airlines Center as these conference rivals clash for the third and final time this season.
Phoenix returned from the All-Star break on Tuesday and scored a 109-95 victory at Memphis in a pick-em contest. The Suns are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games, during which they’ve won and covered five straight road games. Phoenix’s current runs follows a 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS slump (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS on the road).
Dallas also resumed play on Tuesday, ending a three-game road trip with a 99-86 loss at Oklahoma City as a 4½-point road underdog. The Mavericks have lost six of their last eight games, and they’ve failed to cover in eight of their last nine contests and 20 of their last 27. During its 2-6 overall funk, Dallas is 2-2 at home (0-4 ATS).
The Suns ended a three-game losing streak to the Mavs with a 112-106 home win as a two-point favorite back on Jan. 28. Phoenix also got the money in a 102-101 loss in Dallas as a 4½-point underdog on Dec. 8, the first meeting of the season between these squads.
Phoenix is on ATS upticks of 6-1 overall (all against the Western Conference), 5-0 on the highway, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 versus the Southwest Division and 7-3 as an underdog of less than five points, but the Suns have come up short in seven of their last 10 when playing on no rest.
Although the Mavs have won 15 of their 23 home games, they’re just 5-19 ATS, including 10 straight non-covers. Going back further, they’ve cashed just once in their last 18 games at American Airlines Center, going 0-17 ATS as a home favorite. Additionally, Dallas is in pointspread freefalls of 7-20 overall (1-8 last nine), 7-20 against Western Conference teams, 1-4 versus the Pacific Division, 0-5 against winning teams and 2-6 when playing on back-to-back nights.
The under is on runs of 5-0 for Phoenix overall and 4-0 for the Mavs on Wednesday. From there, however, the Suns are on “over” streaks of 6-2 against the Southwest Division, 5-2 versus winning teams, 28-12 on Wednesday, 13-6 when going on back-to-back days and 5-1 as an underdog of less than five points. Also, Dallas is on “over” surges of 7-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-4 against the Western Conference, 5-2 versus winning teams, 5-1 as a favorite and 7-3 when playing on no rest.
Lastly, five of the last six Suns-Mavericks clashes have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and OVER
